Articles & Guides

Deep dives into the Theory of Change, COM-B behavior modeling, and how to successfully architect social impact and policy interventions.

Do Not Cry Over the Spilled Milk — Now Do It Again.
Behavioral Strategy
April 20, 2026

Do Not Cry Over the Spilled Milk — Now Do It Again.

Failure is not the opposite of success—it is data. By applying COM-B and Theory of Change, we can turn repeated failure into a structured path toward eventual success.

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The Ultimate Anticipatory Architecture: Fusing Horizon Scanning, ToC, COM-B, and BATNA
Intervention Strategy
April 15, 2026

The Ultimate Anticipatory Architecture: Fusing Horizon Scanning, ToC, COM-B, and BATNA

Strategic frameworks are often treated as competing ideologies. Discover how unifying Horizon Scanning, Theory of Change, COM-B, and BATNA creates an unstoppable engine for systemic intervention.

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From Signals to Behavior: Turning Horizon Scanning into Real-World Change
Applied Foresight
April 10, 2026

From Signals to Behavior: Turning Horizon Scanning into Real-World Change

Horizon scanning reveals what may happen—but real impact comes from translating those insights into behavior change using Theory of Change and COM-B.

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GSI Radar: Turning Invisible Innovation into Actionable Intelligence
Innovation Intelligence
Apr 01, 2026

GSI Radar: Turning Invisible Innovation into Actionable Intelligence

Most innovation happens outside formal systems. GSI Radar captures these unseen signals and transforms them into structured, actionable, and safety-aware intelligence.

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The Illusion of Agency: Why 'Opportunity' is the Most Ignored Variable in Behavioral Design
Behavioral Diagnostics
March 25, 2026

The Illusion of Agency: Why 'Opportunity' is the Most Ignored Variable in Behavioral Design

When programs fail, intervention designers frequently blame a 'lack of motivation' in the target audience. However, structural and environmental barriers are usually the true culprits.

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The 93 Levers of Change: How the BCT Taxonomy Replaces Guesswork with Precision
Intervention Strategy
March 25, 2026

The 93 Levers of Change: How the BCT Taxonomy Replaces Guesswork with Precision

Once you have diagnosed a behavioral bottleneck using COM-B, what do you actually do? Discover how the Behavior Change Technique Taxonomy provides a scientific menu of precise interventions.

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Nothing as Practical as Good Theory: Why Theory-Based Evaluation is the Future of M&E
Monitoring & Evaluation
March 25, 2026

Nothing as Practical as Good Theory: Why Theory-Based Evaluation is the Future of M&E

Data without context is just noise. Learn how Theory-Based Evaluation allows organizations to measure the invisible mechanisms that actually drive social impact.

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Bridging the Macro and Micro: Integrating Theory of Change with the COM-B Model
Intervention Strategy
Feb 10, 2026

Bridging the Macro and Micro: Integrating Theory of Change with the COM-B Model

Theory of Change provides a flawless structural roadmap for impact, but it often fails to account for the friction of human psychology. Discover why integrating the COM-B model is the missing link for effective intervention design.

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You Will Never Have Enough Data: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making
Apr 10, 2024

You Will Never Have Enough Data: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

In complex systems, waiting for perfect information is the riskiest decision of all. The real skill is learning how to act under uncertainty.

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Horizon Scanning vs. Bayesian Analysis: Radar vs. Detective
Methodology
Apr 05, 2024

Horizon Scanning vs. Bayesian Analysis: Radar vs. Detective

Both methods detect weak signals—but one explores the future, while the other calculates the present. Knowing the difference changes everything.

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